$10,000 Payout on PrizePicks : Six Sharp Player Prop Picks!

https://oddsjam.com/subscribe: sharp, profitable betting tools. Track your profit over a large enough sample size (say 250 wagers) of Positive EV bets and you’ll be up! Try it out today!
Join the OddsJam Community Discord:
Flex play math:
Email:

#bettingtips #sportsbetting #betting


Yo what's up guys I got six picks twin Ten thousand dollars okay it's a six Pick flex play I'm trying to turn 400 Bucks into 10 grand and you may be like Why are you so excited about this pick Well yesterday I had a six pick flex Play and again these aren't parlays so I Still won money 400 to 800 2x your money But you can see here it looks freaking Beautiful but then you get to the last Pick Zach Collins under one and a half Blocks plus steals this guy gets two Absolutely killed my knight last pick I Put in two 400 to win 10 grand but hey Part of the game we're back at it today And I have a bunch of sharp picks for You so let's get into it so the first Pick I'm on is right here and you can See dang lines are moving around that's For sure but I'm on Jalen Brunson under 24 and a half points so you can see this Plays on Underdog as well both Underdog And prize picks have brunson's line at 24 half right you can see that right Here now look at the sports books right The sharper more efficient betting Markets you have DraftKings FanDuel Pinnacle that MGM 10 BET B win Party Poker you know points bet you have all These Sports bucks who have his line at 23 half for the most part you know Caesars also has him at 23 half so prize Picks and Underdog 24 half all the other Data points in the market all the other

Sports books are at 23 half price picks Is too high right we want to take the Under so the way you use the screen and You know you can look at it for the NBA College basketball whatever you want Right literally you can get millions of Odds updating at your fingertips is you Know as a sharp sportsbetter you have to Be following the market you have to be Following the data all these books try To set lines independently so as every Smart Sports fighter knows every Profitable sportsbetter knows it's all About following the market and looking For inefficiencies in the market and Here we can see prize picks Underdog 24 Half the books are at 23 half so we want To take the under right we're getting a Full point of value to the market where If Brunson has exactly 24 points we're Gonna win because we're taking under 24 Half anyone who takes under 23 half will Lose Right so 24 half versus 23 half matters Right we found a play with an edge and I Say this all the time but a lot of People are like is this a lock play's Not a lock right every play I give out Has an edge but I don't win every day on Prize picks right you can see here in 2023 12 Roi ups and downs ups and downs I'm not claiming I win every day I'm Just finding picks with a mathematical Edge and I know I'm going to make money

Long term you know I've studied prize Picks I know exactly how their payouts Work I know that five and six pay Flex Plays are mathematically optimal so You'll never see me giving out picks Like you can even see some of the ones From yesterday clay I mean we still have the opportunity to Double all these up but I mean freaking Clay killed us as well he had like a few Last minute rebounds and you can see Here it's just like absolutely Destroying my night we had a six pick Flex here and you can see he ended up With five but the point of this is You're gonna notice I'm always giving Out and here we have you know four picks That look good onto the UCLA game Tonight is all the picks I'm giving out Are going to be five and six pick flex And you may be like oh why are you Giving out five and six pick flex two Pick power plays seems so much easier And again you have to break down the Payouts right you literally have to if You don't know if three pick power plays Or three pick Flex plays are Mathematically optimal you shouldn't be Playing them Right you shouldn't even be playing on Prize picks if you can't even answer That question right if you don't know How the sports book is trying to beat You and what's optimal you're screwed

You're just gonna lose money you'll have Some winning nights but you're not going To have a 12 Roi on prospects no offense It's just math it's just data so as an Example if you're hitting you know if You're winning your plays and I give This example a lot but it's literally This important if you're winning your Picks so if you can select you know Overs and unders let's go back here Overs and unders if you can hit these Correctly 57 of the time in a five pick Flex play your Roi is going to be 19.25 and I'll put the sheet in the Description on YouTube 19.25 pretty good Right pretty good 19.25 Roi if you're Able to select overs and unders Correctly in a 2 pick power play 57 Percent of the time correctly your Roi Is negative negative 2.53 you're getting Screwed you're losing money long term You will not find a profitable person on Price picks playing 2 pick power place They're all anyone any handicapper Giving out two pick power plays doesn't Know what they're doing there's no other Way to slice the data I mean just you Can go through the math you can break Down the payouts yourself you should Never be placing a 2 pick power play Anyways let's get back into it so the Next tool that I use frequently on Oddstam is called the positive expected Value tool so that's a big word for

Profitable bets right so this tools it's Less flexible I would say than the Screen but the way it works is you Select any books you use you know Whatever like I'm currently in Florida So I'm basically using you know mainly Prize picks Underdog you'll see some Bovada in there but all this you know Tool does is it goes to prize picks Underdog it pulls in all these lines Right so it's reading in all this Freaking data tens of thousands of lines On prize picks it's reading in and it's Comparing them to all the sports books So it's updating millions of odds Literally every second to show you where The value is so here you can see Brock Bowser under two and a half shots on Goal you can get on prize picks all of The sports books are pricing this around Minus 140. Pinnacle sharpest bookmaker In the world pricing this at minus 142. So as sharp betters we know the Breakdown of a five or six Flex is we're Getting minus 119 odds on any pick we Select Right so Sports books have odds prize Picks doesn't right price picks is not a Sports book you'll see there's no odds On this platform but what you can do and Exactly what I do in the sheet is you Reverse engineer prize picks payouts to What it would be if it were a payout From a sports book and it's minus 119

Odds right price picks doesn't vary your Payout right you can see here a six pick Flex this is the payout it wouldn't have Mattered if I took an under and under And under doesn't matter right it Doesn't matter if you take overs or Unders whereas on the sports books they Vary payouts for the over and the under Based on How likely an outcome is to Occur so here because Bowser under two And a half shots on goal is favored it's The more likely outcome sportsbooks have It Juiced pretty heavily to around -140. Right Sports folks have it minus 140 odd So you see you can get this play on Underdog as well that's not always the Case right I say this a lot but like Well that it's the case there too but Sometimes you can't get a play on Underdog right price picks and Underdog They don't have the exact same lines so It's beneficial as a sharp better to Have numerous Sports books you know you Can see here the value on Dinwiddie Assists is on Bovada so the more books You have the more profitable betting Opportunities you're going to have That's just how it works more books more Profitable bets it's that freaking Simple but anyways let's go up here So bows are under two and a half shots On goal you can see whoa all the books Have is under heavily favored some books Have us under more favored you can see

Bet Rivers they're pricing this at -157 Right DraftKings only minus 135 Fanduel's only minus 140. so book set Lines independently so we essentially Have dozens of independent data points All telling us where the line should be Set and you can see all the sports bucks Roughly agree well they all agree the Under should be heavily favored but how Much the under should be favored varies From Buck to Buck so our play on price Picks at -119 we're getting a lot more Value to bet Rivers than we are to DraftKings so we kind of look at all These Sports books they're all Independent data points telling us where The line should be set we know some Books like bet online and Pinnacle are Sharper Sports books they take more Action they allow higher betting limits They take bets from all around the world So they're smarter Sports books so we Put more weight into their odds but long Story short as a sharp Gambler you're Like okay all these books pricing this Around minus 140 I know the math behind A five and a six Flex I know I'm getting Minus 119 odds that's a play I want to Be on right so that's a play I took Here's another play that looks good but I didn't include this in my prize picks Entry that I'm about to show you why Didn't I include it well let's go over Here to open entries so I have Matthew

Tech to not score a goal Brock Bowser Under two and a half shots on goal we Just saw that saw that on the EV page And then we're gonna have four more Picks in this one from the EV tool Um but the reason I didn't include both Of these picks Is these players are from the same game Right so one thing you have to consider When you're putting together players on The same game is is there any Correlation right and what correlation Means is a fancy word but all it means Is like here you can see okay you know They're not varying your payouts Depending on the picks you select so Sometimes you just need to be cognizant Well if I'm putting Brock Bowser under Two and a half shots on goal does that Have any like relationship with Elias Peterson under three and a half shots on Goal so as an example on prize picks it Would make sense to have let's say Mahomes over you know 280 passing yards Travis Kelsey over 75 receiving yards if Mahomes throws 400 yards Kelsey probably Is a lot more likely well he is a lot More likely to go over 75 receiving Yards he's Mahomes main target right Whereas if Mahomes goes over you Wouldn't want to take Kelsey's under in Receiving yards if Mahomes throws 400 Yards Kelsey probably went over 75 so You'd want to include those together

Both overs because there's positive Correlation right so long story short I Wasn't really sure about the correlation Between Bowzer and Peterson so I skipped It this specific play and I took the Bowser play because the profit margin's Higher right the profit margin desire Next play I went with here you can see Four more picks from the EV tool Ryan Nembard under three and a half assists Kawhi under four and a half assess Reinhartman over two and a half shots on Goal Cadre over two and a half shots on Goal literally just following the data I Don't ever trust my gut every Sports Better thinks their gut is smart they All trust their gut and that's why 99.9 Of sports Fighters lose money and nearly All handicappers lose money they have no Idea what they're doing they're not Following the data people making money Sports betting are the sharps following The market in the sports betting Syndicates which are groups of people Who have really complicated models lots Of money and those are the people who Make money sports betting it's not the Guy who's like oh I watched LeBron James Last night he's going over today it's Like come on man like you know guys like That don't meet beat the market and they Can beat the market but they need to Level up their thinking they need to use Data anyone can make money sports

Betting right we're not doing anything Complicated we're looking for Value in The market like a Savvy investor right Right So tuck a Chuck no goal Brock Bozer Under two and a half shots on goal Kadri Over two and a half shots on goal Hartman over two and a half shots on Goal Ryan nemard under three and a half Assists Jayden Atkins under 11 and up Points then I have some five picks you Know again five and six pick flexes are Basically the same so you can kind of Interchange them if you want you know The possibility of a bigger payout of 25x payout take a sex pick if you want The possibility you know of hitting if You want to hit more often so more Frequently but have less of a payout When you do hit than play five pick Flexes right like this example from Yesterday You can see right here if I would have Made it a five Flex I would have turned 400 into four grand but I got greedy and I wanted the 10 grand payout and I Included Collins and that obviously hurt Me because instead of getting four grand I got a hundred dollars right I lowered my payout based on my Selection so those are just things to be Cognizant of Um and the Market's always moving right Lines move just like the price of a

Stock moves players get injured sharp Action comes in lineups change minute Restrictions for all these reasons lines Move right if a hockey player let's say You know his leg gets kind of hurt During practice he's on a minute Restriction that affects every other Player's player props that affects the Money line the spread it affects Everything right affects everything so Following the market you know locking in Sharp plays those are some of the ones I Went with hopefully this video was Helpful if not you know feel free to Comment any questions I'll put my email In the description as well and as well As a sheet kind of breaking down the Prize picks payouts and let's make some Money guys

You May Also Like

About the Author: Shark