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Matt takes you through a betting preview for the 2 NFL games for NFL Championship Weekend. Matt discusses how he found value for his NFL playoff early bets using OddsJam. The OddsJam sports betting software has real-time NFL odds from over fifty sportsbooks. He gives a betting preview of the 49ers vs. Eagles in this game.
He discusses his NFL sports betting strategy and shares how he finds value on all his picks. Matt explains how to find and place mathematically profitable bets using the OddsJam Positive EV and arbitrage tools.
Matt is excited about his early 2022-2023 NFL week bets. Using OddsJam to compare odds with other sportsbooks ensured Matt placed a profitable bets for the wild card games this weekend.
OddsJam has real-time NFL odds from over forty sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel. He thinks he currently has the best bets for NFL playoff games this weekend.
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All right what is up everybody Matt Modi Here with oddsjam here to give you some Bets to lock in specifically for the Eagles versus uh 49ers game so I did a Betting preview of both of these games Along with looking at some player props And DFS plays for both of these games as Well today we're going to be looking Specifically at Eagles versus 49ers as Sports books continue to post more and More props So as of right now the Eagles are about Two and a half Point favorites as you Can see here about -139 on the money Line which is kind of interesting Because when the lines first opened up The Eagles were about one or one and a Half Point favorites now they've embed Up to two Two and a half and some places even Three point favorites Um so money is coming in a little bit on The Eagles uh so what I'm going to be Doing is just looking at the positive Expected value page seeing where we can Find some value on bets specifically for This game So the positive EV page the way it works Is it provides betting opportunities That are have some sort of edge over the Sports book that you're placing the bet With so for this video the three uh Plays that I have as of right now are All going to be on Caesar's Sportsbook
Locked in all of them myself but the Cool part about using ojdam is I knew For this video That I wanted to bet specifically Obviously the NFL games and since There's only two and it wasn't that Difficult to find which one but all you Need to do is just filter specifically For the NFL and since the Eagles are the Early game I just filtered or sorted the Date by earliest and here we have it Some bets specifically for the Eagles Versus 49ers so again I have three Starting off we have Brock Purdy over Eight and a half rushing yards this is At plus 106 odds at Caesars so I Actually locked this in Um I locked in Brock Purdy over nine and A half as soon as this loads you will See so if I go to my Um bets that I have pending you see Brock Purdy over nine and a half it went Down a little bit I got it at plus one 10 odds it went down to um Here you go it went down to eight and a Half rushing yards but at plus 106 odds So it's still a good play so I'm still Going to recommend that this one be Locked in Brock Purdy over eight and a Half rushing yards so the reason why we Have an edge on this play Everything is Derived from these no Vig odds here These odds are pulled from the sharpest Sports books in the world in terms of
Pricing odds if you look at the Screenshot here we see odds range from -123 to -115 to plus 106. pretty wide Gap of odds when you just look at Everything on one screen And what this means is that if you just Think about things logically we have Odds range from plus 106 to -123 that's Like roughly a 30 Cent gap between the Two books one of them has to be right And one of them has to be wrong they Both can't be an accurate reflection of This Brock Purdy rushing yardage prop Right one has to be right one has to be Wrong or the truth is in the middle and That they're both wrong regardless they Both can't be right which is which is The most important thing here so Did was test previous betting Opportunities to determine what Sportsbooks are historically and Consistently correct right the most Often basically saying which sports Books consistently do the best job at Pricing odds so we're going to use them To set the market moving forward and Anywhere in which we can get better odds Than the weighted average of these sharp Sportsbooks will be profitable in the Long run so in this case the sharpest Sports books in the world uh average out To pricing this Brock Purdy prop at About minus 101 and we are getting it up At plus 106. so that's a really really
Good gap between these two lines And then what you want to do before you Lock in a bet you want to look at the um Sports books and kind of compare the Odds of the entire betting markets which I kind of already did right you want to Start with Pinnacle because Pinnacle is The sharpest Sportsbook in the world They price his over at -123 they price Is under at minus 108. so Pinnacle Heavily heavily favors Purdy going over So they favor going over and we're Getting it at plus 106. so we're getting It for plus money which means that if You you don't have to win 58 of your Bets in order to be profitable which is A really really good price here So bet online another sharp sports book Not as heavily but still pretty decently Heavily favors this going over right at -115 versus the Under M minus 112 both Pinnacle and Ben online have the over as The more expensive option which is them Telling you they think it's more likely And again we're getting it at plus 106. And then if we look at the rest of the Markets bet MGM bet 365 and DraftKings All have it as roughly a 50 50 outcome So they don't know what's more or less Likely so they charge equal amounts of Juice on each side Even if that were the case and every Book had it at 50 50 we would still be Getting a really good price at plus 106
But we're getting one even better Because Pinnacle embed online favor the Over so a lot of things in favor of this Brock Purdy over eight and a half Russian yards so that is play number one And I'm putting three quarters of a unit On all three of these plays which for me Is 75 bucks So next up we are looking at quez Watkins to go over 16 and a half Receiving yards this is at plus 100 at Caesar's uh Jam perfect line prices this At about almost essentially minus 102 And a half so again plus 100 it kind of Equals out to be even money So if you place a thousand bets at plus 100 odds You win exactly half you will have Broken even you win anything more than Half you will be profitable and in this Case the Austin perfect line It's telling you that this is likely to Hit more often than not it's going to Hit over 50 percent of the time which is Why this plus 100 is profitable so I Locked in this one right before we Started recording Quez Watkins over 16 and a half Receiving yards plus 100 odds 75 bucks Looking at the other sports books and Where they price it so Pinnacle bet Excuse me Pinnacle DraftKings embed MGM All favor him to go over this number Bet365 has it at 50 50. so
The sports books that price it are Telling us that more often than not ques Watkins will go over this receiving Yardage prop which to me is a sign that It is a good price quez Watkins for Those of you who don't know him he's the Third receiver for the Eagles Um in terms of actual receivers not Including like the Titan Dallas Goddard But he's fast he's got a really good um He's really good deep ball threat and The one area in which you can kind of Beat this 49ers defense is deep the 49ers defense is incredible and I'm not That's not necessarily saying they're Weak to the depot that's just the one Area where they're not Elite compared to Pretty much everything else across the Board so I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles Draw up a couple shot plays for Quest Watkins it's just the matter of can they Hit them or not the markets and the Value is telling us that they'll hit at Least one so we're gonna go ahead and Lock it in Plus 100 odds at Caesars play number two And then last up the third play that We're gonna go ahead and lock in here is Miles Sanders to go over 56 and a half Rushing yards this is again at plus 100 Odds at Caesars this again I put three Quarters of a unit on it locked this one In right before we started recording
Um the logic is pretty similar plus 100 Equals 50 50. the sharpest Sports books In the world are telling us this will Hit over 50 of the time Pinnacle favors The over bet online favors the over DraftKings favors the over that's three The other sports books that price it Typico bet 365 and Ben MGM they all have It as a 50 50 outcome so either we're Getting neutral value on the non-sharp Sportsbooks but if you look at the sharp Sports books we are getting a positive Expected value Which is why this play is showing up in The first place and why I think it's a Really really good play the Eagles Pride Themselves on being able to run the ball On teams that have good run defenses Um two years in a row they played the Number one Rush defense and they torched Them on the ground it's a little bit Different when you have a rushing Quarterback like Jalen hurts so the 49ers have yet to really play a running Style quarterback you know they did play Uh Justin Fields but that was in week One played in a monsoon So Not only was It before the Bears really changed their Offense but it was off also played in Awful weather so If there's any chance that the Eagles Have to have success on the ground game It comes because of the Dual threat Ability with Jalen hurts which obviously
Opens up a ton of space for Miles Sanders the Eagles ran for over 250 Yards against the Giants Mostly because of the threat of having Hertz run so the mild standards one Makes a ton of sense to me as well and That's going to be it for this video so We're gonna get three plays locked in Miles Sanders over 56 and a half rushing Yards quez Watkins over 16 and a half Receiving yards and Brock Purdy over Eight and a half rushing yards and That's going to be it so you're tailing These three which I recommend you do Comment and let me know other than that It would help me out a ton so I'd Appreciate it if you could like the Video and then subscribe to the oddstam YouTube channel if you want to find me On social media you can at my Twitter Handle you see on the screen here Jedi Modi but that's it so appreciate Everybody watching and have a good one