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Matt takes you through a betting preview for the 2 NFL games for NFL Championship Weekend. Matt discusses how he found value for his NFL playoff early bets using OddsJam. The OddsJam sports betting software has real-time NFL odds from over fifty sportsbooks.
He discusses his NFL sports betting strategy and shares how he finds value on all his picks. Matt explains how to find and place mathematically profitable bets using the OddsJam Positive EV and arbitrage tools.
Matt is excited about his early 2022-2023 NFL week bets. Using OddsJam to compare odds with other sportsbooks ensured Matt placed a profitable bets for the wild card games this weekend.
OddsJam has real-time NFL odds from over forty sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel. He thinks he currently has the best bets for NFL playoff games this weekend.
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What's up everybody how we doing Matt Modi here with oddsgam and it's just Insane the amount of value you can find On these two and excuse me NFL games Going on this weekend obviously both Games being played on Sunday I've been continually refreshing the Positive expected value page and just Finding more and more incredibly Valuable Player props to lock in for This weekend some Mainline bets have Been available as well but Um for this video we're specifically Going to be looking at player props so I Hopped on the odd stand positive EV page I filtered specifically for the NFL Specifically for player props And a ton of valuable plays are Available here on the positive EV page So I'm going to go through every single One give my favorite bets for um the Both NFL games going on this weekend I Think I have seven total in this video If I remember correctly So I got a lot to get into so let's get Into it first up first play we're Looking in we're locking in here is Miles Sanders under five and a half Receiving yards it's an incredibly low Number but it is in fact still a really Good play Archdam which is pulled pulls lines from The sharpest Sports books in the world Priced this at about minus 124
Essentially if we can round up from -123.6 and these odds are very important Right the Nova Gods you see in this Column here obviously I know that this Play is the positive EV one because it's Bolded with the um With the blue rectangle around it but Everything is kind of derived from these Odds here so when it comes to sports Betting Sportsbooks are all going to have Different odds and some sports books are Better than others at pricing odds right Like if we just look at this play here That MGM is at -115 we see odds all the Way up to minus 154. that's an insane Difference between two sports books for The same exact play they're both pricing Miles Sanders over under five and a half Receiving yards or I guess in this case They're both pricing the under five and A half receiving yards but like 40 cents Apart forty dollars apart if you're Trying to win 100 bucks on this one so Some sports books are consistently more Right more often than others it's as Simple as that so what ochtium did was Use that knowledge and say hey If we can identify what sports books are Consistently the best we can use them Essentially to set the markets moving Forward on future betting opportunities So In this case it really should be priced
At -124 based on the sharpest Sports Books in the world this is a weighted Average pulled from multiple Sports Books using a weighted average to get These odds We can get it all the way up minus 115. That's a really valuable gap between These two numbers right and then again Look at how low bet MGM is compared to Every other sports book and you want to Start with Pinnacle very very sharp Sportsbook generally considered to be The sharpest Price this at -133 bet online another Very sharp Sportsbook at -149 the Closest book is bet 365 15 cents lower Look at every I mean let's just look Across the market right You can ignore this minus 119 because Prize picks is a DFS company so they Have the same implied odds for every Single play but bet NGM just has a wild Mispriced play here and that's generally Profitable to take advantage of in the Long run So that's exactly why this is a play Play number one mile Sanders under five And a half receiving yards minus 115 at Bet MGM next up we're looking at mvs Marquez Valdez scantling under 27 and a Half receiving yards so I think I locked This one in already in a previous video But it's still available so if you Missed that one I still recommend
Locking it in It's at -110 odds at bet 365. Dodge Jam perfect line prices this at About minus 115 Venom gym has it at -110 Look across the board at the rest of the Sports books Pinnacle at -133 we see two Books that are close value bet and bet MGM and then betfred kind of close at -120 but across the board pretty much in The -130s if you look at the majority of Sports books at a minimum 20 cents Higher higher meaning more likely to Occur than the Bet365 line so this is Another really good one mvs Marquez Valdez scaling under 27 and a half Receiving yards minus 110 odds at bet 365. Play number three another one that I've Already locked in on a previous video But it's still really good as you can See here so I locked in quez Watkins to Go under 16 and a half receiving yards It's still a really good play at 14 and A half receiving yards taking him to go Under so this is at -113 odds at bet Rivers oddsgam perfect line prices this Pretty much exactly at -116 and a half Here And then looking at the sharp books bet Online has this all the way at -143 and Then for a play like this right we only See a couple Sports books pricing it if You view the event page in a new tab it
Pulls up where every Sportsbook prices The market excuse me it pulls up odds For where every Sportsbook prices quez Watkins over under receiving yards so we Know that there's a difference in odds And where sportsbooks price things There's also a difference in the lines Themselves not every single Sportsbook Is going to price quez Watkins his over Under at 14 and a half so We look into this one so it looks like Most sports books actually have it at 15 And a half but look at how heavily they Juice it to go under I mean the closest Odds we see is looks like minus 120 so We're getting seven cents better and Getting this at minus 113 and then Points bet has it all the way down at 10 And a half so points bet is pretty Significantly lower than what the BET Rivers line has and also every other Book so that points bet is a little bit Of an outlier here but this minus 113 at Bet Rivers is a pretty good price Because the juice isn't as high as it is And it's just one yard difference now Obviously that yard's important but in Terms of the value it's better to get The yard worse essentially but for Better odds it's the risk reward payout Pretty much with everything that you Kind of have to Um look for in this case the under 14 And a half is the best value
So that's play number three ques Watkins Under 14 and a half receiving yards next Up we are looking at Joe Mixon and to go Him to go under three and a half Receptions so uh betfred has this at -125 the odd stand perfect line has this At about -129 Again you want to look at the sharp Sports books and where they price it Pinnacle at minus minus 147 bet online At minus 156. Points bet is kind of close at -135 but The rest of the books have it between Minus 140 and minus 156. so 15 to 30 Cents higher than the betfred line which Is another just uh tool in our tool belt About about why this is such a good bet So this is the fourth one Joe Mixon Under three and a half receptions next Up we're looking at samaje piran under 17 and a half receiving yards So Pinnacle is pretty uh favored on this One with the under at minus 128 the over At minus 102. they're heavily favoring Me under DraftKings is also giving us a Pretty good price on this under at -120 V over at -110 as is BET MGM same exact Lines as DraftKings and then if you want To view this one Um view this event page in a new tab we Can see where other sports books price The receiving yardage prop for semaje Piran so again points bet kind of has This wildly priced at 20 and a half but
They have it at minus 125 odds so Again the payout Um is significantly better with Caesars But then in this case it does work out Let me zoom out a little bit here more In our favor with pretty much majority Of sports books pricing this at 16 and a Half or even as low as 13 and a half and Then you want to look at bet online Which is this column right here they Have it a yard lower at 16 and a half And in this case we're getting really Good we're getting minus 103 odds so the Situation is a little bit different than The ques Watkins one because in this Case not only are we only getting -103 Odds but majority of sports books have Been priced lower than this so the risk Reward is almost is even higher it's It's less risk and higher rewards so This is a perfect situation of why you Should be looking into the markets and Seeing where other sports books price Things So samaje piran under 17 and a half Receiving yards this is play number five Play number six and this one hurts me as An Eagles fan miles Sanders under 51 and A half receive rushing yards excuse me Bet 365 has this at -110 Pinnacle pretty Favorite on it at -133 same thing with DraftKings same thing with Caesars and Then we see betfred and bet MGM you know Five to ten cents lower but this minus
110 is still a really good price and the Oxygen perfect line has this at -1 11. So Miles Sanders as my is it sixth pick I believe fifth or sixth pick I can't Remember now Um next up we're looking at Kadarius Tony under 35 and a half receiving yards Similar logic here getting a pretty good Price at bet36 bet 365 at -110 odds Pinnacle is pretty heavily favored on This one at -140 DraftKings at minus 135 Typical minus 130. And then like when we see minus 120 Minus 125. some books are a little bit Excuse me closer to this one which is Why you see the no big odds kind of a Little bit closer to the bet that we're Placing but it's still an outlier it's Still positive Evie there is still a Profitable gap between these two numbers So it's still a good bet to lock in So Kadarius Tony under 35 and a half Receiving yards then I think I have two More so I'll go through these quickly Number one Jamar Chase over 83 and a Half receiving yards Pinnacle has this At minus 121 uh DraftKings at -135 Bet MGM is kind of close at -115 and Then we see like you know minus 122 Minus 127 with similar logic here if we Open this one up in a new tab and see Where other sports books are pricing it So we took the over 83 and a half at Minus 110 odds in this case legitimately
Every single Sports Book prices it above This number if it doesn't have it at 83 And a half including bet online which is This column right here that online and They actually favor the over at this Number so not only Do they have it priced higher but they Also think that the over is the more Likely scenario so this is a pretty good Price here this over 83 and a half at Minus 110 odds you know this is these Are all bets that I've locked in and of Course I just got logged out but as you Can see by the check mark here this is Something that I have locked in and Added to my bet tracker so Jamar Chase Over 83 and a half receiving yards and Then last up last play is Jalen hurts Under 250 and a half passing yards Another one that hurts me as an Eagles Fan but we'll trust the value Pinnacle Is pretty high on it at -133 as is DraftKings and then this is going to be The same thing we open his passing Yardage prop up in a new tab one book That MGM prices at a higher majority of Them price it lower and we see all the Way down to like 239 which is insane It's 11 yards lower And including bet online also has it Lower at 249 and a half so all in all We're getting a really good price on Channel Hertz to go under 250 and a half Passing yards and that's going to be it
Uh for this video tons of player props For you guys to lock in a little bit of A longer video but hopefully you are Able to lock these in and tell me and That's it so appreciate everybody Watching and have a good one
