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Yo what's up Sports betters we had some Close calls yesterday so you can see There's one two and then three slips Where we had a lot of the same picks and We went four for five on prize picks so Again we're always playing Flex plays on Prize picks a lot of people ask me They'll be like oh man if you would have Just went with a three pick entry with Your top three picks you would have Cashed but again we've gone through the Math so many times if you want to make Money on prize picks long term you got To be going with five and six pick Flex Plays right and we can go through the Math very briefly one more time and Again I don't say this to brag but Here's my results 2023 updated on prize Picks 2023 total so prize picks is a 13.55 Roi all with five and six pick Flexes it's just math so I'll put this Spreadsheet kind of breaking down prize Picks payouts in the description but Long story short if you can select overs And unders add a clip of 57 so if you're Hitting your over unders 57 percent of The time your Roi and a five Flex is is Really good it's 19.25 percent right so 57 is a lot but if you can select overs And unders 57 percent of the time Correctly on price picks You know your Roi is 19.25 if you're Playing Five flexes now if you're Playing two pick power plays here's your
Roi freaking negative 2.53 so when we're Going through my results and I go on Winning streaks right I go on losing Streaks so we had some absolutely insane Caches a few days ago right so a lot a Lot a lot of big ones but long story Short you're only going to see through The winning streaks here's a horrible One through the winning streaks through The losing streaks it's all five and six Pick fluxes because that's how you make Money right but anyways let's go ahead Let's get into the picks so the first Play I have is from the odds Jam screen So what this screen does and you can Look at any Market any sport uh you know Millions of odds updating in real time Is all it does is it pulls in data from Prize picks Underdog and the sports Books and lets you compare lines side by Side so for player college basketball Player Pras there's not a lot of books That post odds it's a more niche market But what you're going to notice is Matt Bradley is a kind of interesting line Discrepancy right so what you're going To notice is like dang prize picks has This line at 18. Underdog fantasy so They're direct competitor right these Platforms work in basically the exact Same way is that 18 half so on Underdog Is higher DraftKings is at 18 half 10 BET is at 18 half and kusumo a Canadian Sports book is at 18 half so a lot of
People will be like oh you're not in Canada why are you looking at Canadian Sports books because it's another data Point on where the line should be set Right so when I was a Trader and I'm not Just trying to talk about this random Stuff but you wanted to see more data You wanted to make more informed trades You were trying to look at all the data Possible it's no different as a sharp Sportsbetter I want to see odds on every Sports book more Sports books I can see Odds from the more informed betting Decisions I'm going to make the more Money I'm gonna make so here we can see Prize pixes at 18 then we have four Other data points one two three four all Telling us Matt Bradley should be at 18 Half price picks at 18 all four other Data points at 18 half we want to take The overall prize picks prize picks is Too low and what you're going to notice Too is one two three all of these Sports Books right they have the over favored Lines are Juiced towards the over DraftKings has the over at -120 the Under at minus 110 so the overest favor The over is Juiced right it's the same On 10 BET and it's the same on kusumo so Kusumo is actually a little more Aggressive than DraftKings right they Have the over slightly more Juiced at -124. so DraftKings 10 BET and consumer Are actually saying the over 18 and a
Half should be favored and we're getting Over 18 on prize picks so we're getting Half a point of value and the over 18 Half is the favorite outcome so that's The first play I went with Then the second play I went with is Right here and this is probably the tool I use the most so the tool we were just Looking at the oddsjam screen super cool Super useful Um but it's not gonna like spit out bets To you so what the screen does is I can Open it up again is the main reason I Use the screen is you can kind of so Let's go to like NBA player assists Is you can just see a bunch of data at Once and scan for discrepancies right so This is kind of like Um it's called like a classical odd Screen and this is what most people are Looking at so for example here we can See the first one Dennis Smith assess Hey there's a big discrepancy you know Prize picks an underdog they're direct Competitors they're off from one another That's a play we want to look at right So I just use this screen to kind of Look for discrepancy so here for example Evan Mobley assists every Buck has him At two and a half Underdog prize picks are at two and a Half bet MGM DraftKings bet 365. there's No value right there's no freaking value In the market so I don't want to touch
This with a 10-foot pole there's dozens Of sports books all posting odds around The exact same level there's no value in The market I don't want to touch it Right you don't just want to bet to bet I don't follow my gut 99.9 percent of Sports betters follow their gut I solely Follow data never my gut because I like Money because I like getting results Like this where I'm up 17K on prospects We're not even three months into the Year every single play has been given Out for free on Twitter and YouTube and You know the people who one play will Lose I don't claim to win every day There are winning streaks and losing Streaks I just have an edge and I win Long term it's very simple very simple Right so anyways the second tool I use And this is where I get most of my picks From it's the easiest tool to use is the Oddsjam positive EV tool so all you're Doing with this tool is hitting the bet In bold and in green Right so again we've gone through the Math behind you know prize picks their Payouts so many times what you're going To see here is you have dozens of sports Books or not dozens well there are Dozens but currently you know oddsjam When you're using all the tools it will Just show you uh Sports bucks in your Location so at least in terms of New York Sports books you know there's like
10 data points they're all telling us Brent Burns over two and a half shots on Goal should be priced around you know Minus 140. Pinnacle sharpest sports book In the world they're pricing this at Minus 142. Bovada about online around -135 DraftKings FanDuel bet rivers Around minus 145. So again as a sharp better you're never Going to get an exact answer as to what Should the odds be right each of these Sports books they sit they all set lines Independently right so you're never Going to get a perfect exam answer as to What should the exact odds be but kind Of looking at all the sports books it's Like Den all of the sports Bucks have The over heavily favored you know around Let's say minus 140 we're getting minus 119 and a prize picks five or six Flex Again we're sharp better so we've gone Through you know the payouts we Understand exactly how prize picks works So many people they log into prize picks They start playing they don't even Understand the platform and then they Wonder why they lose money makes no Freaking sense to me it's like you got To study these platforms all you should Be playing is five and six pick Flex so We're getting such great odds on prize Picks minus 119 such clear value enough Value to beat the juice beat The Vig That those Sports books bake into their
Market and have a profitable play Right so essentially you know if we want To go into the math a bit more We can open up what's called a no vague Odds calculator and essentially you know This is very important to think about so On prospects right they're not varying Your payouts depending on if you select Overs or unders so here you know 3x Payout 3x payout if we switch the pick 3x payout so write any two pick power Play is a 3X payout so any five Flex is Always the same payouts as well so the Prices for overs and unders are always The same that's not the same on Sportsbooks right so Pinnacle the Sharpest bookmaker in the world they're Telling you the over should be priced at -142 right the over should be the Favored outcome the over should be Juiced right minus 200 means a two to One favorite 66.67 percent to occur so this is minus 142. two to one favorite minus 266.67 to occur two-thirds to occur here This is minus 142. 1.4 to one favorite Right so essentially you can remove The Vig from the sports book and find out What is is the true win probability for This bet so according to Pinnacle the Sharpest sports book in the world this Play is winning 54.85 percent of the Time Right removing the juice if they had
Lines let's say Juiced all the way to Minus 192 so there would be more juice On the over more favored towards the Outcome closer to minus 200 this wind Probability goes up right if it were Only -122 it goes down Right so this just quantifies based on a Sportsbook's odds How likely they're Saying an outcome is to occur all the Sports books have the over heavily Favored which means the market right all The sports books all the sports Bettors Are agreeing Right that Brent Burns is over should be Favored if his under should be favored Every sharp better in the world would be Hammering his under at plus money until His under was favored right if his under Should be favored every sports betting Syndicate every smart batter in the World would be hammering his under at Plus 107 plus 105 plus 102 plus 115 Right And then the Underwood be favored Sportsbooks move lines due to supply and Demand so long story short all these Books have the over heavily favored We're getting minus 119 in a flex so We're literally day trading the sports Books taking advantage So here you can see my picks Kyrie over 10 and a half rebounds plus Assist Matt Bradley over 18 and a half Pra Seth Jones under two and a half
Shots on goal Serge ibari rice over Three rebounds Brent Burns over two and A half shots on goal 400 to win 4K let's Make some freaking money
