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In this video, we’ll give you our picks and predictions for the NFL week 13 games. We’ll cover all of the biggest matchups, as well as some of the key betting angles.
If you’re looking to make some easy money on the NFL, then be sure to watch our video! We’ll give you our best bets and predictions for the week, so you can make some serious money!
What's up Sports betters it's week 13 of The NFL season and I have two early bets For you so I have a bet on the Patriots Bells game and I also have a bet and you Can see lines are on the Move Superbook Just moved the Patriots from plus 180 Two minutes ago to plus 175. they just Moved the Falcons from -110 to -115 so It looks like lines are slightly moving Towards the Steelers and they just move Lines slightly towards the Bears against The Packers so again I say this all the Time but this Market's Dynamic you never Know when the best bets are going to Occur right being a sharp NFL better You're not looking for bets five minutes Before the game start on Sunday you're Looking well in advance the Market's Moving weather is changing sharp actions Coming in you're following the market Following the line movements and hunting For value So I'll give you an example of a play That I just locked in Um for the Jaguars Lions game which is Actually expected to be a very Competitive game so this is the highest Profit margin bet on odds Jam usually I Sort odd sham you can see I'm filtering For NFL games I'm sorting to see the Highest profit margin that's first You know if you want you can filter to See the lowest profit margin bets first But I typically want to see the highest
Profit margin bets first so ATM is a very simple platform and what I Love about it is there's no BS right Literally all it does is it consolidates Hundreds of Sportsbook odds for every Major Market so you think about money Line you've got all these player props All odd sham does is it takes all that Data and shows you where the value is No BS right so the first play that Oddsjam showing us is the Jaguars minus Half on the first half point spread You can get this plus 115 on Caesars and What you're going to notice is FanDuel Is only giving you plus 100 and then Pinnacle so this column the odd sham Column we just copy pinnacle's odds is Only giving us Plus 102. so we're Getting 13 cents of improvement from Pinnacle plus 102 to plus 115 and 15 Cents of improvement from FanDuel so We're getting decent value on Caesars so Then what you can do what I typically do And again it's free to browse odds on Oddsgam any sport you want to look at You know NBA NFL whatever any games you Want to look at any markets this is free Line shopping which is the core of Sports betting right and what you're Going to notice is right here if we look At the Jaguars minus half across the Entire Market every single sports book You're gonna notice bet 365 plus 100 Minus 120 so they're just like FanDuel
So we're using all this data in the Market to try to get a sense of where Should this bet be priced you treat Every Sportsbook as an independent data Point of where the line should be set And you ruthlessly hunt for Value that Is what a sharp sportsbetter does You know you don't need a bet on every Game You don't need a bet on the money line Or the spread or the total you need a Bet where there's value right you need a Profitable bet that's what you're Looking for so here we're clearly Getting a lot of value at plus 105. cool Bet has this minus 102. again FanDuel Plus 100 so looking across the entire Market Pinnacle looks like they actually Just ticked down so they used to be plus 102 minus 117. now they're plus 101 Minus 116. so when I say this Market's Constantly moving I really mean it Points bet plus 100 minus 120. right so It looks like lines have been slightly Moving towards the Jaguars and Caesars Is asleep at the wheel giving us the First half spread at Plus 115. So long story short I ended up locking It in you know for 500 bucks early NFL Bet I have 22 other plays open you got Some UFC you know you got some World Cup It's the same strategy beat the vague Beat the juice right the Sportsbook Business model the way that Sports books
Like Caesars make money is they charge a Spread called The Vig You know like the easiest way to think About it is looking at point spreads and Also totals so you can see here the most Common form of juice you know for totals So if we look at this hockey game it's Minus 110 minus 110. is the Sportsbook Forces you to bet 11 to win back 10. That's -110 odds so you want to take the Over or the under they make you bet 11 To win back 10. you're not betting 10 to Win 10 you're betting 11 to win 10. that Extra dollar is the juice So a lot of people are like okay well if The sportsbooks charge the vague they Charge the juice then why can I make Money and the reason you can still make Money is this reason because Sports Books have different odds right All of these bookmakers they want to be Unique right Caesars wants to be Different than FanDuel they want to be Different than Pinnacle so they all set Lines independently so essentially what We're doing is we're looking through Where oddsjam is pulling you know the Millions of odds kind of across Caesar Sportsbook and all these other Bookmakers you know when you think about Just how many things you can bet on on These Sports books it's pretty Mind-boggling all the different player Props so all odd GM does is it points
Out hey this is one of the rare plays You know there's only one two three it Looks like there's only like five NFL Plays available that beat The Vig that Actually are profitable that actually Have a mathematical Edge and the top one Is the Jags minus half on the first half Spread So I locked it in you know pretty simple Like I say this all the time but a lot Of people are like oh you know you went On a losing streak you went on a winning Streak your world cup that lost your Parlay lost You know and you can see we do go on Winning streaks we do go on losing Streaks you know kind of across Sports Books you'll notice the same thing but The point is is we're always up and to The right over time I know that my forty thousand dollars I Have currently bet in pending bets is Going to have roughly a four three five Percent ROI over the course of the long Run so I don't really care about these Brief you know losing streaks that you Can kind of see in my bet tracker Um because again I know I'm making money over the course Of the long run I know my place have an Edge and I'm solely placing plays with An edge so what I recommend to all odd Sham users is like Sync a few of your Sportsbook accounts
Points bet MGM bar stool you know There's six different sports books it Looks like in the state of Virginia that You can sync with odds Jam And it's helpful to see you know because You're going to go on losing streaks I Lost one two three four weeks in a row I Lost money this entire month So the whole point is what this bet Tracker will do is it will automatically Read your bets in you know from Caesars From all these different sports books so I have panthers Flames over six goals at -115 for a thousand dollars you can see That's one of the open bets I have right So it will automatically pull in all of Your Wagers and grade them as Windsor Losses Anyways so this is a play that beats the Vague beats the juice I ended up locking It in two percent profit margin we hit It for 500 bucks two percent profit Margin 500 stake ten dollars in EV ten Dollars in profit margin next I have a Play on FanDuel so again I say this all The time but as a sharp better you also Need multiple Sports bucks Right you never know which Sportsbook is Going to be screwing up here it's Caesars right they were giving us this Play at plus 115 when no other book was Giving us better than plus 100 we're Clearly getting value we're clearly Beating the vague and Caesars is clearly
Asleep at the wheel on the Jags first Half point spread so we locked it in but Here's a play on FanDuel Right so if you want another bet with an Edge the second highest profit margin Bet you need FanDuel you need more Sports bucks so what you'll notice here Is lines have actually been moving Pretty aggressively towards the Patriots All day long Um Miss Pinnacle the sharpest bookmaker Out there they're all the way down at Plus 176 on the Patriots Super bets plus 145 so we look at all this data in the Market we treat every Sportsbook as an Independent data point of where the line Should be set and looking across the Market FanDuel is giving us a profit Margin or bet with a profit margin of 1.39 percent so I locked it in for 250 Bucks You know a lot of people ask me about Bet sizing is you can use a Kelly Calculator there are a lot of different Strategies Um depending on what your bankroll is I typically just try to stick to like Round numbers 100 250 500 a thousand a Thousand five hundred depending on how Much I like to play Um as well as how much the book gives You right not all these books allow you To bet as much money as you want that's Why I don't bet on Sports full-time it's
A fun lucrative side Hustle but like the Sports bucks it's not scalable it's not Like you can bet a million dollars on Positive EV plays right Um so this is the second play I locked In right and I say this all the time but Hopefully you guys are able to tell it I Ride with you guys on all these plays With my own money and I'm literally just Showing you what I bet on this YouTube Channel That's all I show so these two plays I Locked in so I'm making a video about Them and explaining why I bet them two Plays here's the profit margin of each Play 2.06 percent right here And here you know we hit it for 500 Bucks so this bet is worth 10 30 in Dollars you just take your Edge or your Profit margin as a percent and you Multiply it by your stake Patriots bet you know lower profit Margin lower stake lower EV EV just Means profit margin and dollars so these Two bets have a combined profit margin Of 13.78. so if you tried to give me a Hundred dollars or something Um for these two bets I tell you of Course my bets are worth 13.78 you want These two bets I'll give that to you if You tried to give me ten dollars And be like yo give me your bet on the Patriots money line at plus 194 and the Jags minus half on the first half spread
At plus 115 I'll give you ten dollars I'll tell you no because my bets are Worth 13.78. Right and that's what sports betters Don't realize is you need to be price Conscious in the same way a day trader All they care about is price they're so Price conscious investors they're always Hunting for Value in the market Following the value it's not different As a sports better the sports don't Matter you're looking for Value in the Marketplace right and you have hundreds Of data points that's what makes sports Betting so fascinating is you have Hundreds of sports books all setting Lines independently so you can Ruthlessly scan Through The Bookies and Look for these soft spots where you're Easily getting a play that beats the Vague beats the juice like we are right Here on FanDuel getting the pass at Plus 194. so I locked it in Hopefully you guys are able to tail These and let's make some money