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Matt takes you through a betting preview for the Super Bowl between the Eagles and the Chiefs. Matt discusses how he found value for his NFL playoff early bets using OddsJam. The OddsJam sports betting software has real-time NFL odds from over fifty sportsbooks.
He discusses his NFL sports betting strategy and shares how he finds value on all his picks. Matt explains how to find and place mathematically profitable bets using the OddsJam Positive EV and arbitrage tools.
Matt is excited about his early 2022-2023 NFL week bets. Using OddsJam to compare odds with other sportsbooks ensured Matt placed a profitable bets for the wild card games this weekend.
OddsJam has real-time NFL odds from over forty sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel. He thinks he currently has the best bets for NFL playoff games this weekend.
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What's up guys Matt here with Dodge gym Just here to give you some player props To lock in for the Super Bowl um I got Three total in this video for you guys To lock in I've been coming up with a Bunch of different stuff different types Of content uh videos bets to make for The Super Bowl including MVP Gatorade Color sand game parlay two um other Parlays that aren't part of the no sweat One that FanDuel offers but the odds are Constantly changing that's both true for The main lines and for like alternate Lines and player props So I figured It's been about a week or so since I've Done a specific player prop betting Video for the Super Bowl so I figured I Would Start looking at the updated lines and Just give you guys some bets to lock in And the first one that we're gonna go Ahead and lock in here already locked This one in quez Watkins Under 12 and a Half receiving yards so The bet is at minus 103 odds at Caesars Um it's really really good it's a really Really good play number one the math Behind it Nova Gods let me zoom in a Little bit here that oddsjam calculates Has this priced at minus 106. so that's Kind of the first thing to understand When it comes to positive expected value Betting is the odds in this column here
That say no big odds they're pulled from The sharpest Sports books in the world So oddsjam did a ton of back testing of Previous betting opportunities And collected a ton of data to determine What sports books do the best job at Pricing odds and I don't mean like Yesterday I mean over a long period of Time and a lot of different samples so Some sports books might be better with NFL some might be better with NBA some Might be better with player props so odd Jam just collected all of this data and Then let the data tell them who's sharp For what sport and what Market So these no big odds can be viewed as The true line the perfect line of what a Market should be priced at it's pretty Much as simple as that you can view These no vague odds as the perfect the True accurate representation of a market So in this case they're pricing it at Minus 106. we are getting better odds at -103 that is profitability And then what you want to do I do this Before placing a bet just look at the Odds of the bet you're placing which in This case the Caesars or the minus 103 At Caesars and compare it to the rest of The sports books so in this case you Want to start with the sharp ones Pinnacle has this priced at -125 remove The Vig that's a good sign giraffe Kings And FanDuel surprisingly both do a
Pretty good job with player props they Both I mean drafting is a minus one 120 Caesars or excuse me FanDuel at minus 122. now I'm not saying that one of These Sports books is the source of Truth that as long as it is positive EV To them that's the most important thing You would just like to have the entire Betting landscape and look at those in a Little bit more detail I'll still take Positive EV bets on FanDuel on DraftKings if they're good if they're Outliers to the rest of the sports books And then let me just just look at the Majority outside of them that NGM -120 Win bet minus 125. box bet minus 133 We're getting really really good prices From every other sports book and when I Say really good I mean that they're Telling us How likely it is for Quest Watkins to go under this receiving Yardage prop so it's really good to Confirm our profitability for the Caesar's bet so I did want to confirm That Um and you know Quest Watkins third Receiver for the Eagles uh more of a Deep threat he doesn't have a reception In either of the playoff games so far Wasn't targeted against the Giants in Their first game was targeted once Against uh the 49ers in their second Game I just think he's a little bit Untrustworthy his route running isn't as
Crisp as you would like he's fumbled on A deep pass as well can't really trust Him I don't think he's going to get a Ton of work in this game It makes a lot of sense to me why this Under is positive EV so I hit it Next up I have two plays that I found Using the oddsgm screen so the way the Screen Works is you choose a market in This case we're looking at rushing yards And you try to find outliers from one Sportsbook compared to the rest of the Sports books so the example that I have Here is Isaiah Pacheco FanDuel prices this at his over under Rushing yards at 46 and a half No other book has it at 46 and a half Except for Fox bet and they always are Aligned Fox bet and FanDuel are always Aligned on player props I don't know if They have the same odds provider for Player props or what but they're always Aligned which I find kind of funny when You look at their main lines they have Different alternate lines their main Lines are always the exact same but look At every other book regardless look at Every other book 48 and a half 47 and a Half favoring the over 50 and a half This 46 and a half is the lowest that Any other book is on his rushing yardage Total Isaiah Pacheco Now it's on FanDuel which I mentioned is Good with player props but I also
Mentioned that I would take bets on FanDuel if they are profitable this one Is profitable DraftKings prices it at 48 And a half and favors the overt it's a Really really good price here On Jose Pacheco to go over 46 and a half Rushing yards I know it's risky backing An Andy Reid team to run the ball enough For his back to hit this over but I Think they got a good matchup in the Run Game if they decide to take it and the Value is there the last play is another Receiving yardage prop in this case we Are looking at the um Chiefs running Back jarek McKinnon and we are taking Him to go over 20 and a half receiving Yards so you can get this at -1 10 odds At both that MGM and DraftKings And you can see exactly why every other Book that doesn't have it at 20 and a Half which is a couple it's bed MGM it's DraftKings Um it's Caesars but Caesar's look how Much they juice the over they have the Overhead minus one 37 compared to -110 On the other two and then typico also Has it at 20 and a half as well but Every other book has about 22 and a half With a decent amount of books actually Favoring this going over at two yards Higher Like oddsjam the odd Jam perfect Line This is pulled from Pinnacle has the Over under at 22 and a half they favor
The owner they have the over at minus 120 the under at plus 102. they're Favoring the over at two yards higher Look at win bet same thing they have the Over under at 22 and a half they favor It going over so we're getting a pretty Good price here at only minus 110 odds At 20 and a half so I think that this is A really really good play jarek McKinnon Over 20 and a half receiving yards so I Like the running match up from a Pacheco I like the receiving matchup for McKinnon and that's going to be it so Three player props for you guys to lock In if you're tailing comment and let me Know but that's it so appreciate Everybody watching and have a good one
