NFL Player Props to Hammer For Thanksgiving NFL Betting Slate

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Matt has an awesome bet for the NFL! He locks in sharp NFL betting picks for NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving NFL betting slate. Matt’s picks are Positive EV, which means that they have a mathematical “edge” over the sportsbook.

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He explains the math and logic behind all of his picks. Matt’s goal is to have as many sharp, profitable NFL bets as possible open for Thursday.

As a sports bettor, Matt talks about his sports betting strategy and why line shopping is so important. This is what you need to do as a sports bettor to make money betting on sports.

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Of course, profitable NFL bets can occur on any sportsbook. The OddsJam sports betting software has NFL betting lines and player prop odds from 50+ sportsbooks, including Caesars & DraftKings.

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How we doing everybody Matt Modi here With oddsjam here to give you some Player props to lock in for Thanksgiving Football so books are starting to post Their player props for the Thanksgiving Games which means that we can find some Valuable plays to make it's my favorite Thing when books start posting lines Because I immediately hop on ojdan and I Just try to find profitable betting Opportunities to make right it's really Really nice it's really convenient Really easy all of these betting Opportunities are on one screen you can Literally filter for the date I wanted to filter for Thanksgiving you Can filter for the market I wanted to Bet player props and guess what here we Have it some player props to lock in for Thanksgiving so I'm going to give you my Favorite let's get into it number one Kirk Cousins over one and a half passing Touchdowns Going against the Patriots who do have Excuse me a pretty good secondary Um just wrapped up uh just a Total Domination of Zach Wilson granted Zach Wilson's terrible I think that this is Priced a little bit lower than it should Be because of how good the Patriots were Last week against Zach Wilson and also How bad the Vikings were last week Against the Cowboys the reality will Probably be somewhere in the middle of

Those two outcomes which makes this Kirk Cousins one a really good line And the plus 100 odds on points bet is The most important thing of why this is Such a good value the no Vig odds that Odd GM calculates prices this to be at About minus 104 right if we want to Round up from minus window 3.75 these Numbers the novig odds are pulled from The sharpest Sports books in the world All in all they give this bet above a 50 Chance of hitting so one cool thing at Least I find it cool about sports Betting is All Odds right plus 100 minus 103.75 whatever They all have a win percentage Associated with them so whenever a Sports book is pricing odds all they're Doing is saying hey we think that this Bet has x amount of x amount of chance Of hitting x amount chance of hitting so We're going to price it at these odds so Using oddjam you can actually back out What the implied win percentage is of a Bet based on the odds so in this case The minus 103.75 the no Vig odds if you Click this calculator under win Percentage this number is pulled from The novig odds and then if you want to Look at in general win percentages you Just go to calculators odds converter And you type in the odds here now I know That plus 100 equals a 50 win percentage But

Like if you're betting plus 120 or minus 120 whatever the numbers come up here so In this case uh the plus 100 is a 50 win Percentage the no Vig odds of minus 103.75 are a 50.92 basically 51 win percentage so Guess what if we bet a thousand bets at Plus 100 odds and we win exactly half of Those bets we will have broken even Won't have one money won't have lost Money any number in which we win above 50 then we are making money and guess What the sharpest Sports books the Smartest Sports books in the world that Ajim has back tested and calculated Think that this bet is going to hit over 50 of the time which means that it's a Profitable bet I run another one thing that I really Like to do and another reason why I like This is if you just click open a play From the positive EV page it pulls up Where every Sportsbook prices odds for This play so plus 100 at points bet and Let's look where other sports books Price it right so 50 50 plus 100. Caesars has the over as the more likely Scenario they price the over at -127 They price the under at minus 108 Favoring the over bet 365 has it at 50 50. whatever DraftKings very sharp Sportsbook specifically with player Props minus 120 the under at -110 Favoring the over typico and bet Rivers

Favor the under they're not super sharp Sportsbooks so don't care a ton about Them and then we get to the most Important ones DraftKings is one of the Most important ones and then we have bet Online very sharp Sportsbook favors the Over minus six 116 the under at minus 111. favoring the over Pinnacle same Thing the over at -122 the under at Minus 108 favoring the over so these no Vague odds of minus 104 come from the Sharpest Sports books in the world that Favor this going over and the odds we Are getting it at at plus 100 means we Only need to win 50 50 to be Pro or we Need to win above 50 50 to be profitable So this is a really good one I like this One a lot Kirk Cousins over Excuse me one and a half passing Touchdowns on Thanksgiving recommend Locking this one in The next one that we are going to lock In here how about Dalton Schultz going Over 35 and a half receiving yards so This bet is at -110 odds at bet 365. the Nova gods that oxjam calculates prices This to be at about minus 114 minus 114.23 giving us a win percentage of Above 53 53.32 and if you look at the implied Odds of -110 it's only 52.38 so again Because uh the Nova Gods the oshtam Perfect line the sharpest lines in the World gives us above

The 53 53.32 chance of hitting this is a Profitable Venture so minus 110 odds Which is what you see a ton right if You're just looking at Main lines across All the sports books you see -110 a lot It's the most common odds you'll see What that means is standard odds minus 110 you have to win 52.38 of the time to Be profitable any number Above This you Are making money that's kind of how the -110 works so this one I really like Both of these plays I think are worth Half unit plays so 50 bucks for me on Kirk Cousins over one and a half passing Touchdowns 50 bucks on Dalton Schultz Over uh 35 and a half receiving yards And again let's look at the sharp books That price this Pinnacle minus 143 bet Online -145 DraftKings minus 120 points bet Minus 125 Caesars minus 127 and then we Have some like 50 50 like um that MGM They're just charging a little bit more Juice but all in all this is a really Good play bet MGM -110 odds on Dalton Schultz over 35 and a half player Receiving yards my second play for Thanksgiving and the last one that I Wanted to lock in here is Justin Jefferson over six and a half receptions Same logic for back and Kirk makes sense To back Justin Jefferson yeah he had a Bad week last week guess what he was Incredible the week before he's an

Incredible player you don't uh you don't Fade incredible players just because of One bad game He's always open that's how he plays and The plus 120 odds on points bet is what This bet is at no big line at about plus 116 and a half we can Round Up to plus 117. so all in all the win percentage For this one is only 46.18 but and this Part's very very important we only need To win if we type in plus 120 odds which You already did we only need to win 45.45 of the time in order to be Profitable So I get a lot of questions About why is it worth betting on plays That are plus money because um and I and The exact question is aren't those plays Going to lose more often and the answer Is yes those plays will lose more often Than not by the inherent odds that we Are betting them at but if your goal for Sports betting is to maximize your win Percentage then you should just bet plus 300 or excuse me you should just bet Minus 300 minus 400 minus 500 because Yeah you'll win a high percentage of Your bets will you make money probably Not because you'll need to win an even Higher percent of your bets in order to Be profitable like if we're betting at Minus 400 you need to win 80 of your Bets to make money eighty percent above 80 actually if you win 80 you are only

Breaking even that is very very Difficult even the the best cappers in The world the cappers Maybe maybe when 60 of the time so if You're betting on plus money plays plus 120 guess what you don't need to win That high of a percent you only need to Win above 45.45 of the time so yeah one individual Bet probably I mean not probably the More likely scenario is that that one Individual bet loses but if you place 10 15 20 25 100 150 bets at plus money and You only win 46 of the time guess what You're making money and really what it Comes down to when you're sports betting Is making money so I do want people to Kind of get away from this thought Process of you should just avoid every Bet that is for plus money there should Still be bet just need to look you need To do the research yourself to make to Make sure that they're actually good in This case this plus 120 at points bet For Justin Jefferson is good pinnacle Plus 102 bet online plus 100 DraftKings Plus 105 the only book that's close to Points bet is FanDuel at plus 114 but You look at the sharp books DraftKings Bet online Pinnacle they all have this For roughly plus 102 plus 100 plus 105 Lower than the plus 120 that points bet Is giving you so another play that I Think is worth putting a half unit on

Which is 50 bucks for me so here we have It my three player props to lock in for Thanksgiving football three games three Player props granted one of the games I Don't have a player prop four but I Still have three for you two in the Patriots versus Vikings game and that's Going to be it so if you're tailing These and if or and or if you have any Questions please comment on the video With your feedback I love hearing from People positive or negative I just like Hearing from people if you want to fade These that's fine just comment on the Video and let me know other than that Please remember to like the video Subscribe to the rgm YouTube channel all That good stuff and that's all I got so Appreciate you guys watching and have a Good one

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