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Matt goes through his best college football bets for Week 12. He finds sharp picks on OddsJam. Matt uses real-time market data to inform all of his betting decisions. He thinks he has the top CFB betting picks for Week 12!
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Matt follows the value and looks for Positive EV wagers. Finding bets with an “edge” is how you make big profits sports betting long-term!
The OddsJam sports betting software has real-time NCAAF odds from over 100 sportsbooks, including DraftKings & FanDuel. Matt uses the tools on OddsJam to zone in one sharp betting opportunities. He finds a variety of picks on FanDuel sportsbook. These are early college football picks for Week 12.
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Hey how we doing everybody Matt Modi Here with oddsjam here to give you some College football bets to lock in for the College football week 13. betting slate So I got a couple bets for Friday the 25th a couple bets for standard Saturday The 26th so make sure that you log into All of your sports books Get ready to lock these in of course Using using the positive expected value Page for these sharp mathematically Profitable bets using oxjam I love it Gives you the edge over the sports books When generally they have the edge over You And I can talk about kind of how it Works with everything and why I like This bet uh talking about this specific One and the play is Nebraska team total Over 13 and a half it's plus 105 at bet 365. not a high team total at 13 and a Half mind you of course playing Iowa you Kind of understand going to be a gross Game it's a really good bet so the no Big odds that oddjam calculates prices This to be at about minus 104 right Minus 104 and some change now this Number it's very important uh just to Understand why it's so powerful this Number comes from the sharpest Sports Books in the world Dodge Jam Back tested tracked collected all this Data historical data to determine what Sports books are the best at pricing
Odds and use those Sports books using a Weighted average remove The Vig from all Of them towards future current I guess I Should say current betting opportunities And then provides opportunities in which You are getting better odds than all Those sharp Sports books so these Nova Gods can be viewed as the true line Of what a market should truly be priced At right it's the odds Jam perfect line So anywhere in which you can beat that It's profitable in this case Repeating it by almost 10 cents Nebraska Over 13 and a half at plus 105 at bet 365. so the gap between these two Numbers is where you get your positive Expected value from it's also positive EV on FanDuel at minus 104 obviously not As good of a price still positive EV so If you don't have excuse me if you don't Have that 365 depending on where you're Located it's not a horrible play on FanDuel as well But all in all if we're sticking with The plus 105 number equates to a profit Margin of about 4.6 percent essentially Now I recommend I recommend putting one Unit on this one so 100 bucks for me Whatever a unit is for you it's just one Percent of your total bankroll is what I Would recommend putting on this one so For me my expected profit for this bet Is 4.65 the reason the way that makes Sense the 4.65 cents essentially the way
It works in the math behind this is so Odds in general All Odds have a win Percentage associated with them so if You go to calculators you go to odds Converter calculator When you type in the odds here so in This case the bet we place was Plus 105. Basically plus 105 has a win percentage Of 48.78 so this means two things number One bet three bet 365 with without The Vig is saying hey we think this BET's Gonna hit 48.78 of the time essentially what it Also means is that this is um This is the number you would need to win Your bets at plus 105 in order to break Even so if I placed thousand bets every Single bed I placed every single one was Plus 105 odds and I won 48.78 of those 1000 bets I would break Even Any number above The 48.78 I'd be profitable so if I won 48.8 percent of those bets if I won 48.9 Percent of those bets if I won 50 I'd be Making money and thanks to oddsjam Thanks to the odd stand perfect line Gives this bet a win percentage of 51.04 Percent So if we look at just the whole view of Everything we're placing a bet at plus 105 odds which means that we don't need We can win less than 50 percent of the Time and still make money we can we can
Win only 49 of the time and still make Money we can lose 51 of our bets be Profitable but Based on the option perfect line based On the sharpest Sports books in the World We're getting a win percentage of 51.04 So above 50 which is insane which is why This is such a good value I mean all Positive EV bets are going to have a win Percentage in your favor compared to um The bet the odds of the bet that you are Placing but in a situation like this the Fact that we're getting a plus money bet In terms of the odds we're betting it at But The Asian line thinks it's going to win Majority of the time Really really good value so this is the First one That we are going to lock in here Nebraska team total over 13 and a half The next play oops that I really liked Was this South Carolina no excuse me Actually sorry I totally missed the Point that I was trying to make with This one so plus 105 odds another thing That I like to do right the math the Percentages you can calculate all that Just using uh the positive EV page There's still additional research that I Like to do into plays before I'm Actually locking them in and I obviously I do all this research prior to
Recording so I already know this one's Good but if you click open a play you Can see where every Sportsbook is Pricing that play and the basically what We're looking for is is this plus 105 is The bet that we are placing a true Outlier or not In this case yeah the best odds we're Getting at is minus 104 on FanDuel the Only other book that would give you a Positive EV play and look across the Board giraffe Kings has this at -125 and They have the over favored they think The over is the more likely scenario by A decent amount too they have it at -125 The under at minus 105 heavily heavily Favoring this over Pinnacle has the Overhead minus 112 the under at minus 104 same thing heavily heavily favoring This over at -112. now not heavily That's a little bit dramatic still Favoring the over so In terms of additional research to do Before blocking in bets just click open The positive EV page and see where all The other sports books are pricing it Another thing you can do is if you open The event page in a new tab you can see Where Sports books are pricing this Market in general now in this case not Super helpful every book is pricing it At 13 and a half but For spreads totals some player props you Can actually see a difference in markets
Or difference excuse me in the actual Bets themselves the numbers themselves That Sports books are pricing odds And we'll see if we can find an example Kind of show you what I'm talking about But the next bet that I liked was Actually this one down here and another Team total how about Wyoming to go under 17 and a half uh Team total minus 128 on FanDuel So a little bit different in terms of The bet that this one uh the win Percentage for this bet is 56.19 so it's more likely to hit Obviously than this um Team total the Nebraska one but the Nova Gods excuse me The odds that we are betting it at so The Nova Gods is giving you 56.19 to Confirm the bet that we are placing it At -128 has a win percentage of 56.14 so Not as big of a gap between the Novae Gods win percentage and the win Percentage of the bed that we are Placing still positive expected value Still really good when you compare to The rest of the books DraftKings minus 140 Pinnacle minus 151 12 to 23 cents Higher than the minus 128 at FanDuel And if you open this event page in a new Tab again we can see where other sports Books price it so we see sport we see Circa price this at 17 favor the under Right the underwrit minus 113 the
Overhead minus 105. and we see uh bet 365 and bet Rivers price this at 16 and A half and now this 16 and a half to 17 And a half is incredibly important Wyoming scores two touchdowns in a field Goal which is a very normal thing right Two touchdowns and a field goal it's a Very common occurrence 17 points our bet Wins we win our under 17 and a half you Push your 17 you lose your 16 and a half Which is shows you the importance of Opening event pages in a new tab when There are different totals and spreads And stuff because you can find pretty Good discrepancies so this is going to Be my second and final college football Bet for this video if you're tailing Them comment and let me know we'd love To hear it but that is all I got for you Guys so appreciate you all watching and Have a good one